The Bills just made the playoffs for the sixth straight season while winning the AFC East for the fifth straight season. After a 13-4 regular season finish, Buffalo had its playoff run foiled by the Chiefs for the second straight time. As one of the top teams in the AFC that now boasts an MVP at quarterback, the Bills will look to be contenders once again.
2024 Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 30.9 (2nd)
Total yards per game: 359.1 (10th)
Plays per game: 60.3 (28th)
Dropbacks per game: 36.9 (26th)
Dropback EPA per play: 0.3 (2nd)
Rush attempts per game: 28.9 (9th)
Rush EPA per play: 0.03 (3rd)
Consistent peak efficiency for Sean McDermott and Josh Allen
Sean McDermott wrapped up his eighth season coaching the Bills with a postseason run ended by the Chiefs in the AFC championship game. Buffalo is a consistent playoff team under McDermott, but has not been able to get over the Patrick Mahomes-sized road block. Nevertheless, the Bills were the No. 2 team in the league for both scoring and EPA per play; the offense also averaged the least turnovers per game.
The Bills lie on the far right side of the above plot, showing one of the best offenses in the league to go along with an impactful defense. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady will enter his second full season as the team’s play-caller. He has worked with reigning MVP Josh Allen for the past three seasons in facilitating an efficient offense, with plenty of scoring. This translates to lots of fantasy football opportunity in the run game, though lack of star power in the receiving corps caps whatever ceiling fantasy managers might be chasing with pass-catchers.
Last season was Bobby Babich’s first as the Bills’ defensive coordinator. He has been with the team since 2017 and oversaw a good-not-elite defensive performance last year. The pass rush will be enhanced by Joey Bosa this season if he can stay healthy. Meanwhile, special teams will be getting a change as Chris Tabor was just hired to the position for 2025. As one of the top teams in the league, the Bills are ripe for fantasy opportunity and another playoff run.
Passing Game
QB: Josh Allen, Mitchell Trubisky
WR: Keon Coleman, Kaden Prather
WR: Khalil Shakir, Curtis Samuel
WR: Joshua Palmer, Elijah Moore
TE: Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox
The Bills’ offensive leader just signed a six-year, $330 million extension this offseason. Allen’s 0.31 EPA per play performance was first among quarterbacks and rewarded with an MVP award for 2024. With 531 yards and 12 scores on the ground to go along with 3,731 yards and 28 touchdowns through the air, he was No. 2 among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring. No nuance or convincing needed here. Allen will be a top-three fantasy quarterback once again.
Now to the more nuanced pass-catchers. Allen elevated a group that lost Stefon Diggs from the previous season. Khalil Shakir was the top performing pass-catcher in a receiving corps that had touches up for grabs. Working out of the slot, Shakir led the team in targets, receptions, and yards. He finished with a 76.8 PFF grade, No. 28 among wide receivers. Mostly used in 10 or 11 personnel, Shakir is an impactful screen and short-yardage receiver to gain yards after the catch. The 25-year-old averaged 8.0 yards after catch per reception, good for No. 5 among wideouts. Though he won’t get too many downfield targets, he’ll make the most of his underneath work. Shakir will get peppered with targets again for 2025, giving him WR3 upside for full PPR leagues.
Rookie Keon Coleman was drafted in the first round last season to become the primary outside receiver. He suffered a wrist injury and missed four games during the season. Coleman finished the regular season with 17 targets between Weeks 17 and 18 but tallied just one reception per playoff game. Though he did not take on a heavy target share, Coleman’s 19.2 yards per reception indicate he can be the team’s deep ball outside receiver. High draft capital, prototypical size, and success downfield make up for low production and put Coleman in the WR4 range.
Meanwhile, the rest of the Bills’ pass-catching group does not cause much excitement. Joshua Palmer and Elijah Moore were added in free agency, though neither have been effective fantasy receivers the last few seasons. Curtis Samuel returns as a versatile option; he totaled just 31 receptions for 253 yards last season. Seventh-round pick Kaden Prather has the tall frame to make an impact on the outside, but Coleman and Palmer are likely to have those roles to start the season. Outside of Shakir and Coleman, Palmer and Moore are the next best receivers to take a late-round dart throw on.
With Shakir doing a good job in the slot and Dawson Knox in to block, Dalton Kincaid was not consistently used in 11 personnel. He was on the field for 57-percent of offensive snaps and was a fantasy TE2 for much of the season. An 8.2-yard aDOT is appealing for a receiving tight end like Kincaid. However, with Shakir and Knox healthy, Kincaid’s ceiling will be limited and fantasy managers should proceed with caution as he looks to be headed for another TE2 season.
Running Game
RB: James Cook, Ty Johnson, Ray Davis
OL (L-R): Dion Dawkins, David Edwards, Connor McGovern, O’Cyrus Torrence, Spencer Brown
The Bills ranked No. 3 in rush EPA per play last season. One great big chunk of that was James Cook, who scored 18 total touchdowns. Of course, the other big chunk of the run game is Allen, who took much of the short-yardage, goal-line work. All that success led to a 0.31 EPA per play performance as a rusher, leading all starting quarterbacks. We don’t need to keep banging the same drum, Allen was a great runner and only adds to his passing ability to keep him at the top of the fantasy quarterback rankings.
The so-called “crumbs” left for Cook amounted to 16 rushing touchdowns, a league-high mark amongst running backs. He scored nine of them from over six yards out. Though Allen took the goal-line work, Cook displayed the burst to score long-distance. He finished with 30 less carries and 12 less receptions than 2023, but with 12 more touchdowns to boost him into back-end RB1 status for fantasy owners. It’s hard to believe Cook could have been more productive but the 25-year-old was taken out on many third-downs and two-minute drills. His lack of pass-blocking utility will keep his ceiling capped as touchdown regression should hit in 2025 and keep him in the high-end RB2 range. Cook is also awaiting a new contract heading into the 2025 season. A holdout seems unlikely, but with Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry setting new highs in the running back market, Cook wants to be next.
The alternative for the Bills on third downs and two-minute drills is Ty Johnson. He took a jump forward as a receiver, tallying 284 receiving yards after 62 yards the previous season. As a rusher, he only carried the ball 41 times for 213 yards. Johnson’s biggest impact is as a satellite back, which gives fantasy managers a low-end FLEX option in PPR leagues. Ray Davis was more the direct backup to Cook, taking over a couple drives per game. He totaled 113 carries for 442 yards as a rookie last season. The fantasy highlight of his season was a 23-touch, 152-yard Week 6 against the Jets; Davis scored at least 14.0 PPR fantasy points in the two games he saw at least 60-percent of snaps. He is the handcuff to Cook in the Bills’ backfield.
Buffalo also returns its entire starting offensive line from last season. All five lineman played over 1,000 snaps between the regular season and playoffs and worked to be one of the better run-blocking units in the league. Continuity and experience helps the Bills here as the offensive line should once again boost the run game in 2025.
Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 11.5
Pick: Over (-175)
The Bills have a DraftKings Over/Under of 11.5 wins. It is one of the highest projected win totals in the league and comes as no surprise after alternating between 13 and 11 wins for each of the past five seasons. Buffalo is a Super Bowl favorite and will be a contender once again. 11.5 wins is an achievable total for a team that should win its division and contend with the likes of the Chiefs and Ravens once again at the top of the AFC. We’ll see if they can slay the Andy Reid dragon, but the regular season should see Allen and company be a top team again. Take the over on this win total.
