2024 Chicago Bears Stats (Rank)
Points per game: 18.2 (28th)
Total yards per game: 283.5 (32nd)
Plays per game: 62.6 (13th)
Dropbacks per game: 36.8 (14th)
Dropback EPA per play: -0.036 (25th)
Rush attempts per game: 25.2 (23rd)
Rush EPA per play: -0.142 (28th)
Mission Possible: Save Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams in his supremely disappointing rookie year presided over one of the least productive offenses in the NFL, a unit that never got better and suffered from the rookie’s wildly inaccurate passing — especially from a clean pocket.
Perhaps it was the offensive scheme cooked up by Shane Waldron, who has now failed spectacularly in two stops as an offensive coordinator. Maybe it was Chicago’s offensive line, though — as I wrote back in March — there are plenty of reasons to believe Williams’ sack problems were self-inflicted.
That the Bears were aggressive in hiring the quarterback-whispering Ben Johnson as their next head coach speaks to the palpable desperation of the moment. The Bears can’t afford for Williams to join the generational line of quarterback busts in Chicago. Johnson has been tasked with saving Williams before it’s too late, if it’s not already too late following Williams’ calamitous 2024 season.
Passing Game
QB: Caleb Williams, Tyson Bagent
WR: DJ Moore, Olamide Zaccheaus
WR: Rome Odunze, Devin Duvernay
WR: Luther Burden, Tyler Scott
TE: Colston Loveland, Cole Kmet
The Bears spent more than $40 million this spring to revamp an offensive line graded by Pro Football Focus as the league’s eighth best pass blocking unit in 2024. This overhaul, naturally, came after Caleb Williams took a league-high 68 sacks and 241 pressures, the NFL’s third highest mark.
In a season largely defined by Williams’ hair-on-fire play style, the rookie was 11th out of 40 qualifying QBs in completion rate over expected when pressured, though his catchable ball rate in such scenarios ranked near the bottom — 37th out of 40 quarterbacks, alongside Jameis Winston and Anthony Richardson. That’s not where the concern should lie though. Williams struggled mightily from a clean pocket from start to finish in 2024. He was 0.7 percent over his expected completion rate from a clean pocket in 2024, fifth lowest among qualifying QBs. Only Richardson had a lower catchable ball rate from clean pockets. It was bleak for Williams when he had time to operate. As someone who drafted Odunze in a few important fantasy leagues, I could hardly stomach another errant Caleb overthrow on a surefire touchdown. It was nauseating.
Johnson’s offense, predicated on basic over-the-middle throws that turned Jared Goff into a spreadsheet dominator in Detroit, should provide more easy-button attempts for Williams in 2025 — if, of course, Williams is amenable to such throws. It will be quite the shift for Williams, as the Bears ranked 28th in the rate of over-the-middle passes (18 percent) last season while the Lions were first (31 percent). Detroit was second in over-the-middle passing rate in 2023. It’s definitely a Thing in Johnson’s offense.
Johnson said in early June that the team had spent ample time on screen passes. Whether the ultra-confident Williams will take the easy check down is another matter entirely. We know this much though: Williams was accurate on short tosses in 2024, completing 91 percent of such throws.
Williams last year was pressured on 36 percent of his drop backs, ranking 18th out of 40 qualifying QBs. Here’s where the problem lies: Williams took a sack on 28 percent of those pressures; only Deshaun Watson and Will Levis had a higher pressure-to-sack ratio.
Williams has a little bit in the way of rushing juice. Last season he ranked seventh among QBs with 81 rushing attempts; his 489 rushing yards were the sixth most among signal callers. If Williams buys into Johnson’s paint-by-numbers, analytics-friendly offensive program and continues rushing at a decent clip, he could push for top-12 fantasy status, just as Goff was regularly a QB1 under Johnson.
It can’t get much worse for Williams in 2025, a year after he had the same fantasy points per drop back as Aidan O’Connell and Andy Dalton.
DJ Moore told reporters in mid-June that he doesn’t have any goals for the 2025 season because he doesn’t know his place in Ben Johnson’s offensive system. Moore, who has been lectured by Johnson about his poor on-field body language, seemes to suspect he won’t see the ball quite as much as he has during his two seasons with the Bears. It’s an ugly scene for fantasy purposes.
Moore (and the rest of Chicago’s pass catchers) were victims of Williams’ astounding drop back inefficiency in 2024. Moore ranked 67th out of 110 qualifying wideouts in yards per route. It was by far Moore’s lowest yards per route of his NFL career. 2024 also marked the lowest average depth of target (aDOT) of his seven NFL seasons. If he eventually finds a role in the team’s new offense, Moore should bounce back based on increased efficiency alone.
A potential issue for Moore’s 2025 usage comes in the form of second-round rookie WR Luther Burden, who in college was a consistent target commander. Running 86 percent of his pass routes from the slot at Missouri, Burden was targeted on 24 percent of his routes -- a near-elite rate for a receiver taken outside the first round of the draft. Johnson’s focus on the screen game could work out well for Burden, a short-area merchant in college. If Burden functions as Chicago’s primary slot guy, he could take on the role Amon-Ra St. Brown occupied in Johnson’s offense. It’s a fantasy friendly one, especially in PPR formats. If the oft-injured Burden can stay upright for most or all of the 2025 season, I could see him soaking up a lot of Keenan Allen’s 2024 target share and becoming the most productive Chicago receiver. The health issue will be paramount for Burden, who has missed the team’s offseason program with some kind of soft tissue injury.
Odunze’s issues in 2024 were twofold: Williams was wildly inaccurate when targeting the rookie and he just did not get open. Odunze last year ranked 70th out of 116 qualifying wideouts in ESPN’s open score, which measures a pass catchers’ ability to separate from defenders. It’s not a great sign for Odunze’s fantasy prospects. It means he’ll have to become an adept contested ball catcher if he’s going to emerge as a viable fantasy option in 12-team leagues, especially as Moore and Burden soak up short-area targets from Williams. Johnson said in May that the team was “going to see a lot of growth from [Odunze], not just in the springtime, but once we get to camp.” So he has that going for him, which is nice.
The Bears’ tight end situation might appear complicated until you remember one thing: The team invested a top-ten draft pick in Colston Loveland. Probably that’s all you need to know, but I’ll tell you more. Marquee Sports Network’s Scott Bair reported in mid-June that Loveland — dealing with a shoulder injury in the offseason — “should be the primary tight end in the passing game and a real weapon over the course of the season.”
Loveland, after being invisible in the Michigan offense in 2022 and 2023, had a solid final season, catching 56 passes for 582 yards and five touchdowns in the massively run-heavy Wolverines offense. Loveland was targeted on a ridiculous 38 percent of his pass routes during his final collegiate season. It’s the kind of target per route rate that suggests Loveland can command looks even if he’s not the first or second option in a passing attack. A mere four tight ends in the nation had a better yards per route than Loveland in 2024. Probably that proved irresistible to Ben Johnson the spreadsheet king.
Coming off a career-high 70 percent receiving success rate in 2024, Cole Kmet should still have a place in the Chicago offense, mostly as a blocker. He won’t have much in the way of fantasy value unless Loveland misses time in 2025.
Running Game
RB: D’Andre Swift, Roschon Johnson, Travis Homer, Kyle Monangai
OL (L-R): Braxton Jones, Joe Thuney, Drew Dalman, Jonah Jackson, Darnell Wright
Swift in 2024 checked every box an inefficient rusher could check. He was bad before contact, he was bad after contact, and he did precious little with 253 carries, the tenth most in the NFL. Swift’s rushing success rate ranked 40th out of 44 qualifying running backs, below guys like Travis Etienne and Tony Pollard. There’s no sugarcoating how bad Swift was as Chicago’s lead back in 2024.
So naturally, he’s back for another year at the head of the Bears backfield. The best-case scenario is that Swift’s relationship with Ben Johnson from their days together in Detroit and Johnson’s superior play design and play calling turns Swift into a replacement-level rusher who sees consistent involvement in the aforementioned Chicago screen game. The worst case scenario: Swift continues struggling and Johnson has no choice but to try Roschon Johnson or incoming rookie Kyle Monangai as the team’s primary ball carrier. Either way, Swift appears to be the best bet to function as Chicago’s pass-patching back despite Pro Football Focus grading him 43rd out of 50 qualifying running backs in receiving last season. He might be able to achieve top-20 RB status based on volume alone, though he could miss out on goal line opportunities if Johnson — a much bigger back — takes over in high-leverage areas.
The Bears tried to move on from Swift in the offseason. They were reportedly interested in a couple free agent backs, including Kareem Hunt, and were in the Ashton Jeanty sweepstakes for weeks ahead of the NFL Draft. It means Johnson should be a late-round target for folks who use Zero or Hero RB roster builds.
2025 Chicago Bears Win Total
DraftKings Over/Under: 8.5
Pick: Over
Taking the over on 8.5 wins is entirely based on Ben Johnson’s hyper-modern offense bringing some stability to Caleb Williams’ on-field life and creating positive conditions for the second-year QB. Chicago’s defense should be solid enough to allow Johnson’s offense to operate in neutral game script more often than not, ensuring Williams won’t be forced into the pass-heavy situations that proved to be his undoing in 2024. While the Bears are far from contenders, they profile as a team that can sneak into the postseason under Johnson.
